Before Christmas, when I heard through my Marine friends that the current cobra/huey squadron at Al Taqaddum had not had a casualty evacuation mission in over 6 weeks, my jaw nearly hit the floor! I couldn’t believe it! By comparison, when I was deployed there last year at this time, we had as many as 9 casualty evacuation missions on our busiest of days. It was hard for me to imagine a bigger contrast from my experience.
“Dude, they’re bored over there,” my Marine buddy told me back in December.
Consider this quote from an excellent article in the Economist…
“Once widely considered the most dangerous and xenophobic city in Iraq and one of the country’s most resilient havens of al-Qaeda, Falluja is now enjoying a new, if tentative, peace. So, no less strikingly, is the whole of Anbar province, in which Falluja lies, and most of the Euphrates river valley. The Americans say that if you go north and north-west through Hit and Haditha and up to the border with Syria near the town of Qaim, it is clear that al-Qaeda has been chased out—with the co-operation of the local Sunnis and the tribal leaders. In those areas, which embrace the vast majority of Iraq’s Sunni Arabs outside Baghdad, attacks against the American-led coalition forces have dropped more than tenfold compared with a year ago.”
It’s tough to know what’s going on in the Iraq war when there isn’t much news on the topic. Well, no news is good news!! Since this past fall, news out of Iraq has been very positive. But, since good news isn’t forced down our throats like bad news, it’s easy to miss our current success. And now many of our democratic friends will surely want to use this success as yet another reason to get us out of Iraq. Interestingly, a year ago, the argument to get us out of Iraq was because things were so bad. Now that they are looking better for a change, the rationale for withdrawal has taken a new face. I would caution my democratic friends that withdrawal now is not the best strategy for maintaining peace in Iraq. Rather, it is a selfish strategy that would give off the wrong message that we’re ready to quit just when we’re starting to win and make progress.
-Joel
4 comments ↓
This is true, and I agree with the Economist article in many ways. But it’s worth mentioning that if the month-to-month violence levels have declined, it has come at the expense of the erosion of the Iraqi state. In the end, only three things will matter:
1. Number and power of insurgents/divisive forces in Iraq
2. Credibility of the central Iraqi government
3. Strength of the Iraqi military.
We may have made progress on the first point, but the Maliki government has dropped the ball and the military continues to be unprofessional and ineffective. Thus, the current “progress” in Iraq may very well evaporate as soon as the surge ends.
I share in the frustration about the Maliki government. But it’s important to remember that our critique of the way they govern is from our own perspective…with 233 years of democracy behind us. We see many missed opportunities but the Iraqi government is likely barely treading water with how to govern, how to manage, and how to compromise. I believe that the government will have to evolve over a similar timeframe as the people…about a half generation or so. When all you know is life under the Baathists, I imagine that it’s a little tough to figure out how to run any organization smoothly, especially a government…even after 4 years.
Regarding the Iraqi military. I disagree that they are not effective. On the contrary, there were large sections of Al Anbar, particularly up near the border with Syria, that we were turning over to the Iraqi army when I was there. They were doing just fine. In many parts of the country they are slowly showing their worth as keepers of the peace. I will agree that there is much progress, by our standards, that still needs to be made. But I don’t believe it’s as bleak as it may seem. And remember, we’re trying to help build a capable and competent military from the ground up…no small task!!
The key is to stick around there until the old mindsets are gone, or greatly diminished, in all three groups of the country: the government, the populace, and the military. To me, that means we stay there for another 3-5 years minimum, drawing down forces as allowable.
Awesome! Ahahaha! Stop it, you’re killing me! Anyway, I’m glad I’m not the only one who thought this is great.
Wrinklefree,
I’m not sure what your comment is trying to say. Do you mean that the Good News in Iraq is laughable in that it’s not possible to believe? I’m interested to know what is laughable and the cause for your sarcastic tone. I guess I’ll never know unless you expand on your comment.
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